Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,550$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,323.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(58,323.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,696$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,418.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,418.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,083$ on 2020-06-20

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $304,580$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{296,456.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.7)}}\) (asimptote \(296,456.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,674$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,601.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.9)}}\) (asimptote \(40,601.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $260,587$ on 2020-06-20

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $245,938$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,796.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(234,796.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,322$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(8.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,240.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(27,240.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $67,240$ on 2020-06-20

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $238,275$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,763.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,763.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,610$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,431.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(33,431.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,212$ on 2020-06-20

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,883.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 84.7)}}\) (asimptote \(68,883.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(733 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,934.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,934.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-20

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $196,724$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186,470.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(186,470.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,636$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,587.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,587.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92,652$ on 2020-06-20

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,710$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,967.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(46,967.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,108$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,974.3}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,974.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,416$ on 2020-06-20

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,374$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(5.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,958.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(24,958.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,715$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(320 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,664.9}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,664.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $961$ on 2020-06-20

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Estonia recovered 89%
Italy recovered 80%
Lithuania recovered 76%
Hungary recovered 55%
Portugal recovered 48%
Belarus recovered 18%
Russia recovered 5%

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,981$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(598 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,856.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,856.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(24.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(67.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $154$ on 2020-06-20

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,795$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(558 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,644.6}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,644.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $76$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(17.9 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(76.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $249$ on 2020-06-20

Hungary⮸

Population $9,660,351$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,086$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(853 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,993.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,993.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $570$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(93.8 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{553.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.9)}}\) (asimptote \(553.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $931$ on 2020-06-20

Portugal⮸

Population $10,196,709$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,841$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,588.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,588.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,528$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(362 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,480.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,480.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,407$ on 2020-06-20